What Trajectory measures
The current score compares the assessment implied by the property's own verified sale with the municipality's assessment-to-sale ratio. A relationship that is materially out of step can signal future uncertainty even when today's tax bill looks favorable.
Why direction matters
A snapshot cannot explain whether a favorable position is durable. Trajectory introduces movement and timing into the current property model. It is different from future Watchdog Momentum, which is intended to describe observed score change across historical score observations.
A large gap can indicate that the property's current assessment relationship is not moving in step with the municipal evidence. It is not, by itself, a forecast of the next assessment.
Evidence behind Trajectory
- Verified property sale amount and year.
- Current assessed value.
- Municipal verified assessment-to-sale ratio.
- Longitudinal evidence used for future historical explanations.
What it does not mean
Research direction
As Watchdog accumulates historical MOD-IV and score observations, Trajectory can become more explicitly longitudinal and better separated from one-time sale timing. Model changes should preserve historical version identity.